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Brighton's Rise Was Hiding in Plain Sight: 13 Goals, Seven Absentees and the Depth Nobody Priced In

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Brighton beat Coventry 5-0 with seven players unavailable. They have scored thirteen goals in four matches, more than any other side in the Premier League, and have climbed from tenth to fourth. On the surface this looks like a team that suddenly caught fire. The data says something less dramatic and more useful: Brighton have been playing like this since Gameweek 1, and the results simply took three weeks to catch up. The Process Was Never the Problem Here is every match Brighton have played this season, measured by what they created rather than what the scoreboard said. Brighton's creation per match - FotMob data Gameweek Result Poss. xG xGOT Shots Box touches GW1 vs Aston Villa (H) W 4-0 73% 3.77 3.59 21 38 GW2 at Chelsea (A) L 3-4 74% 1.41 2.61 15 27 GW3 vs Leeds (H) D 1-1 67% 2.19 0.68 20 29 GW4 at Coventry (A) W 5-0 70% 2.81 3.64 22 26 Average 7 points 71% 2.55 2.63 19.5 30 Brighton have held at least 67% of the ball in every single match and taken fifteen or m...
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Ten Men, One Goal: How Manchester City Won the Derby Despite Being Outshot 16-6

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Manchester City went down to ten men in the twenty-third minute at Old Trafford and still won the derby. Manchester United had 55% possession, sixteen shots to City's six, and twenty-eight touches in the opposition box to sixteen - and lost 1-0. The gap between those numbers and the result is the story of the round, and it says something uncomfortable about both clubs. The Match: Territory Versus Quality Phil Foden was sent off after twenty-three minutes, meaning City defended for sixty-seven minutes a man down. Erling Haaland scored the only goal on the hour. Derby head-to-head - FotMob data Stat Man United Man City Possession 55% 45% Total shots 16 6 Shots off target 9 1 Shots on target 3 2 Touches in opposition box 28 16 xG 1.00 1.10 xGOT 0.28 0.97 Set-play xG 0.20 0.48 Distance covered 110.4km 104.7km The decisive number is xGOT - expected goals from shots that actually reached the goalkeeper. United's sixteen attempts were worth 0.28. City's six were...
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We Got It Wrong: What Fulham Changed to Draw 0-0 at Anfield - A Data Breakdown

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Before Gameweek 4 we published a straightforward call: Liverpool's joint-top scorer, at home, against a Fulham side with zero points from three games, was the cleanest pick of the round. The match finished 0-0. Fulham took a point at Anfield, Liverpool missed all four of their big chances, and our recommended striker managed fifteen touches in ninety minutes. This is what the data says Fulham actually changed - and why our own analysis should have warned us. What Fulham Changed: They Stopped Conceding Quality The headline shift is defensive, and it is not subtle. Across their first three matches Fulham conceded an average of 2.08 expected goals per game. At Anfield they conceded 1.28. More importantly, the quality of shots they allowed on target collapsed. xG and xGOT conceded by gameweek - FotMob data Defensive metric GW1-3 average GW4 at Liverpool Change xG conceded 2.08 1.28 -38% xGOT conceded 1.97 0.90 -54% Box touches conceded 25.3 18 -29% Big chances conceded 4.7 ...
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How to Pick the Right Player Against a Bottom Team - The Sample-Size and Rotation Traps

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The instinct is sound: find the worst team in the league, look at who they play, and back that opponent's best player. It is one of the most reliable ideas in fantasy football. But applying it to Gameweek 4 exposes three traps that can turn an obvious pick into a wasted transfer - a headline rating built on almost no minutes, an injury list seven players deep, and a manager with two much bigger fixtures coming up. Here is the filter we used, and where it led. Step 1: Find the Genuinely Worst Team Coventry City are the clearest bottom team in the division, and the most damning number is not their position but their squad sheet: not a single Coventry player has recorded a goal or an assist all season . Metric Coventry City Record 0W 0D 3L, 0 points Goals scored 0 Squad goal involvements 0 from the entire squad Five-metric composite rank Worst in the league Their £5.5m striker has played 180 minutes without a goal and carries a form rating of 1.7. We covered the full five-...
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Who Is Actually Playing Badly? A 5-Metric Check on the Premier League's Strugglers - And the Hull City Trap

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Earlier we looked at Fulham and found a team with genuinely good underlying numbers stuck on zero points. This is the mirror image of that question: which teams have been consistently poor across the underlying metrics themselves , not just in the results column? We ranked all 20 clubs on five team-level measures - distance covered, shots on target, accurate passes, xG and touches in the opposition box - and then cross-checked Fantasy Football Scout's fixture ticker to see who gets to play them. One team came out looking terrible on every attacking metric while sitting 3rd in the table, and that contradiction is the most important thing in this article. The Method: Five Metrics, One Composite Rank Every club has played exactly three matches, so season totals and "last three games" are the same thing right now. We took each team's league rank in five categories and averaged them, so a higher average rank number means a worse all-round performance profile. Five-m...
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Gameweek 4 Preview: Manchester Derby Headlines a Loaded Weekend - FPL Picks & Fixtures

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Gameweek 4 runs from Saturday 12 to Tuesday 15 September, and it is built around one fixture: Manchester United vs Manchester City at Old Trafford on Monday . City arrive as the only team in the division with a perfect record, United sit 11th and desperate for a statement. Add three players tied at the top of the scoring charts and a Liverpool side unbeaten but drawing too often, and this is the most interesting round of the season so far. Here is the full fixture list, the players who matter, and who to back for FPL. The Headline: Manchester Derby at Old Trafford Manchester City go to Old Trafford as the Premier League's only 100% team, with three wins from three, nine points and a +5 goal difference. Manchester United sit 11th on four points after a loss, a win and a draw, giving this derby a genuine gap in form between the two sides. Manchester derby, Monday 14 September 00:30 KST - FotMob data Team Pos Record GF-GA Points Manchester City 1st 3W-0D-0L 7-2 (+5) 9 Manche...
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FPL Team Case Study: Why the Safe Captain Pick Still Delivered in Gameweek 3

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Correction and update: this case study has been revised after a closer review of the underlying data confirmed the actual captaincy call for the gameweek in question. Three rounds into the season, this 4-3-3 squad sits on 162 total points, and Gameweek 3 turned out to be a story of a safe captaincy pick paying off - even while several other squad decisions left points on the table. Here's the full breakdown. The Squad After Three Gameweeks This case-study squad runs a 4-3-3 formation built around Manchester City's Erling Haaland and Chelsea's Joao Pedro up front, with a squad value of £95.8m and £5.0m still in the bank. Three transfers have been made across the season so far, and none of the four available chips have been used. Full squad breakdown after Gameweek 3 - Official FPL data The Captaincy Call That Paid Off This squad's Gameweek 3 captain was Erling Haaland, and the choice delivered: his 9 raw points doubled to 18 as captain, accounting for 43% of the...
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