Brighton's Rise Was Hiding in Plain Sight: 13 Goals, Seven Absentees and the Depth Nobody Priced In

Brighton beat Coventry 5-0 with seven players unavailable. They have scored thirteen goals in four matches, more than any other side in the Premier League, and have climbed from tenth to fourth. On the surface this looks like a team that suddenly caught fire. The data says something less dramatic and more useful: Brighton have been playing like this since Gameweek 1, and the results simply took three weeks to catch up.

The Process Was Never the Problem

Here is every match Brighton have played this season, measured by what they created rather than what the scoreboard said.

Brighton's creation per match - FotMob data

Gameweek	Result	Poss.	xG	xGOT	Shots	Box touches
GW1 vs Aston Villa (H)	W 4-0	73%	3.77	3.59	21	38
GW2 at Chelsea (A)	L 3-4	74%	1.41	2.61	15	27
GW3 vs Leeds (H)	D 1-1	67%	2.19	0.68	20	29
GW4 at Coventry (A)	W 5-0	70%	2.81	3.64	22	26
Average	7 points	71%	2.55	2.63	19.5	30

Brighton have held at least 67% of the ball in every single match and taken fifteen or more shots every time. An average of 2.55 xG per game is title-contender territory. Yet four games produced only seven points.

The single bad night is easy to find. Against Leeds in Gameweek 3, Brighton took twenty shots and generated 2.19 xG, but their xGOT was just 0.68. Almost nothing they hit actually troubled the goalkeeper. That is a ninety-minute finishing problem, not a structural one - and the correction came immediately.

The 5-0: Five Goals, Five Different Scorers

Coventry 0-5 Brighton - FotMob data

Kostoulas on 35, Yalcouye on 51, Gross from the penalty spot on 70, Dunk on 83, Ayari in the fourth minute of stoppage time. Five goals, five different scorers, and eight different players involved in a goal or an assist. Brighton controlled 70% of the ball, completed 526 passes at 90% accuracy against Coventry's 174 at 70%, and covered 109.1km to Coventry's 99.6km.

The honest caveat: Coventry had Taiwo Awoniyi sent off on 53 minutes with the score at 0-2, and three of the five goals came afterwards. But Brighton were already two ahead and dominating possession before it, so the red card widened the margin rather than created it. We flagged the same kind of caveat in our Manchester derby review, where a red card also changed the shape of a game.

Where We Were Wrong

Before this fixture we published a four-step filter for picking players against bottom teams, and we applied it to this exact match. It is worth checking honestly.

Our pre-match calls scored against the result

Our call	Reality	Verdict
Coventry are genuinely the worst team by underlying metrics	Lost 0-5; still 0 points and 0 goals in four games	HIT
Brighton are genuinely strong, not just table-strong	70% possession, 2.81 xG, 22 shots	HIT
Take De Cuyper, not a Brighton forward	8.4 rating and an assist; form now 8.0 at £4.8m	HIT
Hinshelwood's 9.01 rating was a sample-size trap	Still injured, 63 minutes all season, did not play	HIT
Seven absentees is a real concern	Won 5-0; replacements scored four of the five	MISS
Rotation risk before Man Utd and Arsenal	Strong XI started; subs came only once it was won	PARTIAL

Four hits, one miss, one partial. The miss matters more than the hits, because it points at a rule we had wrong: an absentee list is not the same as a weakened team. Brighton have thirteen goals from at least eight different scorers. When goals are distributed that widely, losing individuals costs far less than it does at a side built around one finisher.

Who to Actually Own

Player	Price	Form	Returns	Minutes
Pascal Gross	£5.6m	8.2	2 goals, 3 assists	360 (every minute)
Maxim De Cuyper	£4.8m	8.0	1 goal, 3 assists	333
Luka Vuskovic	£5.0m	6.0	1 goal	347
Lewis Dunk	£4.5m	5.5	1 goal	360 (every minute)
Jack Hinshelwood	£5.9m	4.0	2 goals	63 - injured

Pascal Gross is the pick. At £5.6m he has played every available minute, has five attacking returns, scored the penalty and assisted two more against Coventry, and was rated 9.4 - the highest of any player on the pitch. Maxim De Cuyper at £4.8m is the budget defender play, with four returns from a full-back position and a form rating of 8.0. The expensive name, Hinshelwood at £5.9m, has still played 63 minutes all season and remains out.

Does This Continue?

The immediate test is Manchester United away on 17 September. United have just lost the derby while creating only 1.00 xG against ten men, as covered in our derby breakdown - a side struggling to finish, facing one that is finishing everything.

The case for Brighton continuing is straightforward: 71% average possession, 2.55 xG per game and thirteen goals is not a four-game hot streak, it is a method. The case against is that they have already dropped points in two games where they were comfortably the better side. If they tighten that, fourth place is a floor rather than a ceiling. This is the same pattern we identified with Fulham at Anfield and with Hull City's league position: the table lags the underlying numbers, and the underlying numbers move first.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. Why are Brighton suddenly scoring so many goals?

They are not sudden. Brighton have averaged 2.55 xG and 19.5 shots per game across all four gameweeks. The only underperforming match was Gameweek 3 against Leeds, where twenty shots produced an xGOT of only 0.68.

Q2. Who is the best Brighton FPL pick right now?

Pascal Gross at £5.6m. He has a form rating of 8.2, two goals and three assists, has played all 360 available minutes, and was rated 9.4 against Coventry with a goal and two assists.

Q3. Is Maxim De Cuyper worth buying?

At £4.8m he has one goal and three assists with a form rating of 8.0, which is exceptional value for a full-back in a side averaging 71% possession.

Q4. How did Brighton win 5-0 with seven players missing?

Their goals are spread widely. Five different players scored against Coventry and at least eight different players have scored this season, so individual absences cost less than at a one-striker team.

Q5. Does the Coventry red card make the 5-0 less impressive?

Partly. Taiwo Awoniyi was dismissed on 53 minutes at 0-2 and three goals followed. But Brighton already led by two with 70% possession, so the red card extended the margin rather than caused the dominance.

Data sources: FotMob match statistics | Official Fantasy Premier League (as of 14 September 2026)

Related reading: Picking Players Against Bottom Teams | Ten Men, One Goal: The Manchester Derby | We Got It Wrong: Fulham at Anfield