Bottom 5 Reality Check: Are Palace, Spurs, Villa, Coventry & Fulham Really in Trouble? - GW2 FPL Stats Deep Dive
Five Premier League clubs sit rock bottom after two rounds with zero points: Crystal Palace, Tottenham Hotspur, Aston Villa, Coventry City, and Fulham. On paper, it looks like a relegation battle already forming in September. But is it actually that bad? We dug into FotMob's underlying numbers - who they lost to, how they performed despite losing, and whether new summer signings are showing signs of life - to separate genuine alarm bells from small-sample-size noise.
The Bottom 5 at a Glance
| Pos | Team | Record | GD | Lost To |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16th | Fulham | 0W-0D-2L | -2 | Chelsea (4th) 2-3, Sunderland (11th) 0-1 |
| 17th | Coventry City | 0W-0D-2L | -4 | Arsenal (2nd) 0-3, Hull City (3rd) 0-1 |
| 18th | Crystal Palace | 0W-0D-2L | -5 | Everton (7th) 0-2, Man City (1st) 1-4 |
| 19th | Aston Villa | 0W-0D-2L | -5 | Brighton (9th) 0-4, Arsenal (2nd) 0-1 |
| 20th | Tottenham | 0W-0D-2L | -5 | Brentford (5th) 0-3, Newcastle (6th) 0-2 |
Severity ranking based on opponent quality and underlying performance data - FotMob
1. Aston Villa - Severity: HIGH
Villa's start is the most concerning of the five. They were dismantled 4-0 at home... away, actually, by Brighton, a mid-table side (9th), not a title contender. The numbers were brutal: 27% possession, 0 shots on target, 0 big chances, and a covered distance of just 105.3 km - the lowest of any match across all five teams in this report. João Gomes was also sent off in the 40th minute.
| Match | Poss. | xG | Shots on Target | Big Chances | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton 4-0 Villa | 27% | 0.29 | 0 | 0 | 105.3 km |
| Villa 0-1 Arsenal | 39% | 0.33 | 0 | 0 | 117.8 km |
The Arsenal loss (2nd place, unbeaten) is far more forgivable - Villa were competitive on possession and shot count against a genuine title contender. But posting zero shots on target in back-to-back matches, including one against a non-elite side, is a red flag that data can't spin away. On the bright side, new €55.5m signing Nicolas Jackson debuted against Arsenal with a team-high 6.5 rating and 0.10 xA, and keeper Zion Suzuki (€30m) had a composed debut.
2. Tottenham Hotspur - Severity: MEDIUM
Spurs are bottom of the table on paper, but the underlying story is more nuanced. Their two defeats came against Brentford (5th) and Newcastle (6th) - both unbeaten, well-drilled mid-table sides, not fellow strugglers. In the Newcastle match specifically, Spurs actually won the process: more possession (58%), more shots (17 vs 11), higher xG (1.12 vs 0.72), and more big chances - but wasted two clear opportunities and were punished by clinical finishing (Newcastle's goals came from a combined xG of just 0.69).
| Match | Poss. | xG | Shots on Target | Big Chances | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford 3-0 Spurs | 60% | 0.57 | 4 | 2 | 113.9 km |
| Spurs 0-2 Newcastle | 58% | 1.12 | 6 | 2 | 111.5 km |
The bigger concern is that a club that spent over £350m this summer is losing to teams they should be beating, not champions-elect. But individually, the new arrivals are delivering: Jan Paul van Hecke (7.4), Omar Marmoush (7.3), and Mateus Fernandes (7.2) were literally Tottenham's top three rated players against Newcastle. The process and personnel both look better than the scoreline suggests - the finishing simply hasn't clicked yet.
3. Crystal Palace - Severity: MEDIUM
Palace's two losses split cleanly into "unlucky" and "outclassed." Away at Everton (7th, in strong early form), Palace actually out-possessed (58%), out-created (4 big chances to 1), and out-xG'd (1.96 to 1.12) their hosts - but missed all four big chances and lost 2-0 to a clinical Everton side. Their second loss, 1-4 at home to Manchester City, was a legitimate, no-excuses mismatch (72% possession, 9 shots on target to 1 for City).
| Match | Poss. | xG | Shots on Target | Big Chances | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton 2-0 Palace | 58% | 1.96 | 4 | 4 | 117.6 km |
| Palace 1-4 Man City | 28% | 0.66 | 1 | 3 | 116.0 km |
The standout bright spot: summer signing Anan Khalaili (undisclosed fee from Union Saint-Gilloise) was Palace's highest-rated player in both matches (7.38, then 7.73), coming off the bench each time. He's outperforming the established starting XI and looks like a player manager Pierre Sage should be giving more minutes.
4. Coventry City - Severity: LOW
As a newly-promoted side, context matters enormously for Coventry. Their first loss came away at Arsenal (2nd), a totally understandable result for a promoted club. Their second loss, 0-1 at home to Hull City, stings more on the scoreboard - but Hull are also newly promoted and are enjoying arguably the best start of any club in the league (3rd place, 2 wins, 2 clean sheets, including a shock win over Manchester United). Coventry actually dominated that game: 68% possession, 11 shots to 6, and a higher xG (1.29 vs 0.72), only to concede a late breakaway sucker-punch.
| Match | Poss. | xG | Shots on Target | Big Chances | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal 3-0 Coventry | 36% | 0.20 | 1 | 1 | 113.0 km |
| Coventry 0-1 Hull | 68% | 1.29 | 3 | 1 | 113.6 km |
New signing Taiwo Awoniyi (€10.5m from Nottingham Forest) posted a strong 0.93 xG in his first start versus Hull - essentially a goal's worth of quality chances that didn't go in. If his underlying numbers hold, goals should follow soon. Coventry's underlying picture is far healthier than "0 points, 0 goals" suggests.
5. Fulham - Severity: LOW
Fulham have the best goal difference (-2) of the bottom five, and for good reason. Their opening loss, 2-3 at home to Chelsea (4th) under new manager Xabi Alonso, was genuinely competitive - Fulham had 62% possession and scored twice against a team that made a club-record signing this summer. Their second loss, 0-1 away to Sunderland (11th, who finished 7th and qualified for Europe last season), is more concerning: Fulham had 59% possession and 11 shots but registered zero on target.
| Match | Poss. | xG | Shots on Target | Big Chances | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham 2-3 Chelsea | 62% | 1.33 | 6 | 2 | 121.1 km |
| Sunderland 1-0 Fulham | 59% | 0.95 | 0 | 2 | 118.0 km |
Fulham also covered the most distance of any match in this entire report (121.1 km vs Chelsea), showing strong work-rate isn't the issue. New €40m signing Gonzalo García scored on his Premier League debut against Chelsea (7.2 rating, 0.73 xG) - the most productive individual return of any new signing across all five clubs.
New Signings Worth Watching
Standout debut performances despite team results - FotMob
FPL Angle: Anyone Worth Owning?
From an FPL perspective, most of these clubs are too risky to touch for template picks right now - but a few individual names are worth watching on watchlists:
- Omar Marmoush (Tottenham) - Loan arrival from Man City, immediately Spurs' most creative outlet (0.17 xG, 0.07 xA vs Newcastle). Budget-friendly differential if minutes stay consistent.
- Gonzalo García (Fulham) - Scored on debut, best underlying attacking numbers of any new signing in this group. Worth a watchlist spot as a cheap enabler if he starts regularly.
- Taiwo Awoniyi (Coventry) - 0.93 xG in his first start signals goals are coming; too early to own but log him for when Coventry's fixtures ease.
- Anan Khalaili (Crystal Palace) - Best-rated Palace player in both games from the bench; monitor for a potential starting role.
Final Verdict: Ranked by Severity
| Rank | Team | Severity | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (Worst) | Aston Villa | HIGH | 0 shots on target in both games, thrashed by a mid-table side, red card |
| 2 | Tottenham | MEDIUM | Lost to teams they should beat, but underlying process is actually good |
| 3 | Crystal Palace | MEDIUM | One legit mismatch (City), one squandered opportunity (Everton) |
| 4 | Coventry City | LOW | Lost to a title contender and the league's best-performing promoted side |
| 5 (Least Bad) | Fulham | LOW | Best GD, competitive vs a top-4 side, new signing already scoring |
Frequently Asked Questions
Q1. Which bottom-5 team's start is the most concerning based on the data?
Aston Villa. They registered zero shots on target in both of their opening matches and were thrashed 4-0 by a mid-table Brighton side, not a title contender, which is the clearest underlying red flag among the five clubs.
Q2. Are any of these bottom-5 teams actually playing well despite losing?
Yes. Coventry City outplayed Hull City on possession, shots, and xG before conceding a late breakaway goal, and Tottenham out-shot and out-xG'd Newcastle United while still losing 0-2. Both results reflect finishing luck more than being outclassed.
Q3. Which new signing among the bottom 5 clubs looks most promising?
Gonzalo García at Fulham has the standout individual debut, scoring against Chelsea with a 0.73 xG performance. Anan Khalaili at Crystal Palace and Omar Marmoush at Tottenham are also outperforming their teams' results.
Q4. Did any of these teams lose to fellow relegation-battlers?
No. All ten defeats across the bottom five came against clubs currently placed 2nd through 11th in the table, including two title contenders (Manchester City, Arsenal) and no fellow bottom-half opponents.
Q5. Should FPL managers avoid all bottom-5 clubs entirely?
For template captaincy and premium picks, yes for now. But cheap differentials like Omar Marmoush, Gonzalo García, and Taiwo Awoniyi are worth watchlist spots given their underlying numbers exceed their teams' results so far.
Data sources: FotMob Premier League | Fantasy Football Scout
Related reading: Manchester United 5-2 Ipswich: Bruno Fernandes Hat-Trick Review | GW2 Preview: Chelsea & Arsenal
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