Ten Men, One Goal: How Manchester City Won the Derby Despite Being Outshot 16-6

Manchester City went down to ten men in the twenty-third minute at Old Trafford and still won the derby. Manchester United had 55% possession, sixteen shots to City's six, and twenty-eight touches in the opposition box to sixteen - and lost 1-0. The gap between those numbers and the result is the story of the round, and it says something uncomfortable about both clubs.

The Match: Territory Versus Quality

Phil Foden was sent off after twenty-three minutes, meaning City defended for sixty-seven minutes a man down. Erling Haaland scored the only goal on the hour.

Derby head-to-head - FotMob data

Stat	Man United	Man City
Possession	55%	45%
Total shots	16	6
Shots off target	9	1
Shots on target	3	2
Touches in opposition box	28	16
xG	1.00	1.10
xGOT	0.28	0.97
Set-play xG	0.20	0.48
Distance covered	110.4km	104.7km

The decisive number is xGOT - expected goals from shots that actually reached the goalkeeper. United's sixteen attempts were worth 0.28. City's six were worth 0.97, more than three times as much from a quarter of the volume. Nine of United's shots missed the target entirely.

The Biggest Week-on-Week Change in the League: Manchester City

No side altered its profile between Gameweek 3 and Gameweek 4 as dramatically as City did. Seven days earlier they had beaten Coventry 1-0 with 78% possession and 751 completed passes.

Man City, Gameweek 3 versus Gameweek 4 - FotMob data

Man City	GW3 vs Coventry	GW4 derby	Change
Possession	78%	45%	-33 points
Passes completed	751	331	-56%
Total shots	15	6	-60%
Touches in opposition box	36	16	-56%
Distance covered	109.4km	104.7km	-4.7km

Both games ended 1-0. The method could not have been more different. Manchester United, by contrast, barely moved: 55% possession in both rounds, xG up only from 0.69 to 1.00, distance covered from 110.0km to 110.4km. Playing against ten men for two-thirds of a derby produced almost no change in United's output. That is the more worrying read.

Who Performed - And Who Came From Nowhere

Match ratings - FotMob and official FPL data

Erling Haaland (8.1) remains exactly what he has been all season: four goals in four games, a form rating of 8.2, and every available minute played. Josko Gvardiol (8.2 form, one goal and two assists) continues to be one of the best value defenders in the division.

The surprise was Matheus Nunes, who matched Haaland for the highest rating on the pitch at 8.1. Nunes had played 123 minutes all season and carried a form rating of 2.5 before this game. With Foden suspended, the opportunity is real.

For United, Kobbie Mainoo was comfortably the best player in a red shirt at 8.0, despite a season form of 4.5 from 275 minutes. Bruno Fernandes, the subject of our earlier review of his hat-trick against Ipswich, had a quiet 6.9 - though his season form of 7.2 is still strong.

Concerns for the Winners

City are level on twelve points with Arsenal and have conceded twice in four games, but three things are worth flagging.

Concern	Detail
Foden suspension	Sent off with a 4.7 rating; unavailable until 17 October
Work rate	104.7km was among the lowest in the round, even accounting for ten men
Record signings still settling	Enzo Fernandez form 1.5, Elliot Anderson 3.2, Bouaddi 0.7 for the season

That midfield cost a combined €385m, as covered in our transfer window analysis. Anderson (7.5) and Enzo Fernandez (7.4) both had their best games of the season in the derby, which is encouraging - but the season-long numbers remain poor.

Positives for the Losers

United sit fifteenth on four points, but this was not a passive defeat.

• Kobbie Mainoo at 8.0 was the outstanding midfielder on the pitch and looks like a genuine building block.
• The defence held. Dorgu 7.3, Dalot 7.1 and Martinez 7.1 conceded once, and only 1.10 xG, against a side that scored eight in four games.
• Creation improved. xG rose from 0.69 to 1.00 and box touches from 26 to 28 week on week. The problem was finishing, not approach - nine off-target shots and an xGOT of 0.28 tells you where to look.

Who Carries Momentum Forward

City remain the safest bet at the top: four wins from four, two goals conceded, and now proof they can win a derby with ten men. The Foden absence is the only material variable.

But the team in the sharpest upward curve this round was not in Manchester at all. Brighton won 5-0 at Coventry despite seven absentees, taking their season total to thirteen goals - the most in the league - and climbing from tenth to fourth. We flagged that fixture as risky because of injuries and rotation risk, and the caution was wrong. That result deserves its own breakdown, which is coming next.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. What was the score in the Manchester derby?

Manchester United 0-1 Manchester City at Old Trafford. Erling Haaland scored on the hour, after Phil Foden had been sent off for City in the twenty-third minute.

Q2. How did ten-man Manchester City beat United?

Through shot quality. United took sixteen shots to City's six, but City's expected goals on target was 0.97 against United's 0.28. Nine of United's attempts missed the target completely.

Q3. Who was the best player in the Manchester derby?

Matheus Nunes and Erling Haaland shared the highest rating at 8.1. Nunes was the surprise, having played only 123 minutes all season beforehand. Kobbie Mainoo was United's best at 8.0.

Q4. How long is Phil Foden suspended?

He is unavailable until 17 October following his red card, which covers several fixtures and opens a route into the side for squad players such as Matheus Nunes.

Q5. Should Manchester United fans be encouraged by this defeat?

Partially. The defence conceded just 1.10 xG and Mainoo was outstanding, but creating only 1.00 xG and 0.28 xGOT against ten men for two-thirds of the match is a serious finishing concern.

Data sources: FotMob match statistics | Official Fantasy Premier League (as of 14 September 2026)

Related reading: GW4 Preview: Manchester Derby | What Fulham Changed at Anfield | €50M+ Transfer Window Analysis